What will the world of Linux be like in 3 years time? - GNU/Linux
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I think in 3 years, there will be purely corporate distros, like Ubuntu, Centos (oh, no, that one is RIP, right), RHEL which will have became systemd/Linux instead of GNU/Linux.
Their desktops will be gnome, cinnamon, mate, KDE... but mostly GnomeD^W Gnome. Maybe Gnome will be merged into systemd and renamed in desktop-environment-d, aka DED. There, Xorg will be a thing of the past, wayland everywhere, and probably lot of security failures despite the all safer components, because things will be a nightmare to setup correctly. Maybe this nightmare will be voluntarily done, to make corporations more worth of the money they want for the "support", but I think it'll be mostly because knowledge of how system work will be lost. Things will be very big-data-AI centric, computers will guess a lot, and that'll work nicely... for normal usages. I explicitly don't put Debian in there, because I believe (as shown by the fact in Debian 10 "buster", "init" can be either: systemd-sysv, sysvinit-core or runit-init) that while systemd will be the major and most widely used system framework, it will still be a GNU-able/Linux distro, with half-ass in corporate-side, and half-ass in hackers-side. That's something I now believe is Debian's trademark after all. Then, there will be the anti-systemd distro, most of them keeping old sysVinit uglyness by default: Devuan and the others. Sure, they work to use more advanced init and supervision tools, but I don't think they'll be there in 3 years. Those are the "old guard corporate distro". Those will provide limited support for big DEs, probably good one for lone window managers. Another side will be the hacker-distros. Here, I put mostly voidlinux, guix, k1ss, but I'm pretty certain there are others, and we might see more appearing. Since they are hacker-oriented, they will have completely random support for Xorg or Wayland, not to mention flatpack & the like. Basically, they'll have completely random support for everything outside the linux kernel, because, well, they *are* hacker-oriented, mostly targeting amateurs (in the meaning, doing stuff for fun). By random, I mean, some will support a lot a solution, others another solution, and not that things will fail 1 time every 10 times. |
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